Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Thinking Aloud - Fear

The oil price keeps rocketing high, governments are losing control gradually on inflation. Pessimistic statistic figures are deepening worries and igniting fears globally, positive news is too weak to assure confidence of economy recovery.

On 28-Jun, "De Financiële Telegraaf" reported that Fortis expects a complete collapse of the US financial markets within a few weeks.

This statement is quaking most investors! How could this influential bank give such threatening speech at this fragile moment to enhance fears? Financial market has been tumbling since. If the US, the world's biggest economy body is collapsing, what would the world be? I'm too afraid to think of the domino effect triggered. Would I or my closest family and friends lose the job? Would the social get much disorder? How long would it need to recover?

Could this be a conspiracy of middle-east oil rich countries who wants to destroy the US in a much brilliant way than 9-11 plot? They will later come to extend their help to salvage the best core businesses and properties with just a token of their reserve. Practically this is just a copy of IMF's tricks on Asia monetary crisis in 1997-98. Now they turn their target to the US and rule the world! What a great Capitalism!

The oil price has now been the most influential economy indicator. Any news related to disturbing the regular production is definitely spurring panic in the market. Meanwhile Iran is rushing to develop nuclear weapon. Israel launched a massive military practice recently simulating attack on Iran. They for sure will do their best to stop Iran to obtain the technology. I'm really afraid this would be the cause of 3rd world war.

A friend has just returned from the US, told me that the life has changed drastically due to the high oil price. The weak Dollar is to be blamed, people said. I agree with (not entirely) the US to keep their role as global police, on the other hand they are too selfish to rely on foreign countries on energy resources. Why don't they pump oil from their own huge offshore reserve? Would this strategy for future resources still practical in the next century?

I guess the world won't like to see the US economy collapse. But who has such a huge fund to revive the struggling economy, if the US does not initiate a better defensive measure to rescue themselves?